Increasing Gun Theft Penalties
So, what does the research show?
A debate is taking place among state legislators in Colorado over whether to effectively increase the penalties for theft of a firearm by making it “a class 6 felony, regardless of the firearm’s value.”
The proponents and opponents have expressed a shared objective of reducing the number of stolen firearms and gun violence, but they cite conflicting research to support their differing positions on House Bill 1062.
Advocacy research has an important role in Colorado, but it can often beg the question –
How do decision makers and civic and business leaders, and the general public, determine which side’s research claims are more persuasive. What does the best available, unbiased research tell us?
The Institute of Evidence-based Policymaking was established for this very purpose – to support policymakers with unbiased, evidence-based research in real-time to help inform important policy decisions.
Because of its complexity and deeply held values people bring to the subject, public safety is an area where deployment of inaccurate or selective research (often referred to as confirmation bias) is understandably common.
For now, though, we’ll recap some of the arguments on both sides of the issue of reducing gun thefts, as well reported by Marissa Ventrelli in Colorado Politics:
The proponents argue that enhanced penalties will reduce gun theft by prioritizing investigation, prosecution, and increased sentencing for these offenses. And by reducing gun thefts, this bill will reduce gun violence, noting that 90% of all guns used in violent crimes were obtained unlawfully.
The opponents argue that gun thefts are more effectively addressed by increased police presence rather than tougher sentences. And they argue that there is no evidence that basing punishment on a weapon’s value reduces the number of guns on the streets; and that increasing the length of time of incarceration increases recidivism rates, thus leading to more crimes committed.
So, let’s analyze this through an evidence-based lens –
The best available research suggests that there is evidence of some crime reduction from tougher penalties for gun theft – e.g., deterrence, disruption of firearm trafficking, and enhanced enforcement.
According to the Colorado Bureau of Investigation’s crime statistics database, the rate of gun thefts per 100,000 residents in Colorado increased by 69% between 2013 and 2024, totaling 3,310 thefts in 2024. The rise in gun thefts is correlated with the rise in motor vehicle thefts. Over the same period, the percentage of all firearms stolen related to motor vehicle theft increased from 3.3% to 9.6% in 2024, falling from a peak of 13.2% in 2022 when motor vehicle thefts also peaked.
Colorado already has enacted several policies and programs that, in concert, work to reduce gun crime. In 2021 legislation was passed to require safe storage of firearms and to require gun owners report guns lost or stolen within five days of the gun going missing. In 2023, a three-day waiting period for gun delivery was established after the mandatory background check for a firearm purchase.
While these are important regulations to have in place in the array of firearm restrictions, most crime guns are stolen or taken from someone known to them. According to a report from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF), an average of 58% of traced crime guns between 2017 and 2021 had a different purchaser from the possessor of the crime gun, and in 29% of traced guns, the purchaser was known but the possessor was not.
Local law enforcement has a large role to play in prioritizing evidence-based strategies like focused deterrence and hot spots policing, targeting their limited resources on the people and places most likely to engage in or experience crime. Local entities also partner with federal investigators like the ATF’s Crime Gun Intelligence Center to complete the ballistics analysis necessary to trace crime guns.
Pairing stricter penalties on gun thefts with an increased focus by law enforcement on clearing gun theft cases and on safe storage of firearms can strengthen state and local capacity to help reduce gun crime.
Meredith Moon and Shepard Nevel are Research Director and CEO, respectively, of the Institute of Evidence-based Policymaking.
